February 12th, 2008


Likely scenario

1. Barack sweeps the small contests.

2. Barack wins outright in Ohio and Pennsylvania. He nearly catches Hillary in Texas.

3. Superdelegates start leaving Hillary like rats from a sinking ship.

4. Barack still lacks enough delegates for a first ballot nomination. Seating Florida and Michigan would put Hillary near or over Barack's delegate count, but still not enough for her to win a first ballot.

5. Pressure mounts on Hillary to bow to popular pressure and allow Baracks nomination to be unanimous.

6. Hillary has her Caucasian Chalk Circle Moment -- should she tear the party in half, or let it go to preserve it?

What happens in step 7 is not clear to me. I hope Hillary is committed enough to the country and the party to back off at this point, but I honestly don't know.

If Hillary twists arms and pushes to get Florida and Michigan seated in order to win the nomination despite losing a popular vote and pledged delegate count, the parallels with the Republicans will be obvious. Can she win an election having told the base, independents, and young voters to fuck off?
Can McCain hope to win without the social conservatives?

Bottom line: Obama V McCain is a clear choice. Clinton V McCain is yet another hold your nose affair.